Group 1 - TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the price target on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to $198 from $183 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares [1] - The firm's updated model reflects earnings that exceeded expectations due to refining gross margin aligning with historical capture [1] - First quarter 2026 throughput and operating expenses will be affected by turnarounds, but operations are expected to improve thereafter with lower year-over-year turnaround spending and future declines [1] Group 2 - Margins are anticipated to benefit from seasonality [1]

Key Takeaways Marathon Petroleum delivered Q4 adjusted EPS of $4.07, topping estimates, while revenues of $33.4B also beat.Refining & Marketing EBITDA surged on higher crack spreads, an $18.65 per barrel margin, and 95% utilization.MPC returned about $1.3B to shareholders in Q4 and ended 2025 with $4.4B left under buybacks. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $4.07, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73. Moreover, the bottom line increased s ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美国在阿拉伯海击落一架靠近美国航空母舰的伊朗无人机，地缘政治紧张局势 再次抬头，油价连续第二天上涨。周二WTI原油上涨1.7%后，周三进一步逼近每桶64美元，而布伦特原 油收于每桶67美元上方。此次冲突令石油市场感到不安，但美国总统特朗普重申双方仍在进行外交对 话，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特也确认美伊谈判仍定于周五举行。 尽管有迹象表明供应过剩前景仍在，但对中东地区(全球约三分之一原油的产地)任何冲突的担忧，上个 月仍推高了油价。此外，石油也受到了大宗商品市场整体动荡的影响，黄金和白银价格一度暴跌，但在 周二收复了部分失地。 紧张局势升级的另一个迹象是，一艘悬挂美国国旗的油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭到伊朗船只的骚扰。霍尔木 兹海峡是全球贸易的重要航道。美国中央司令部称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队"骚扰"了"史丹纳号"油轮，该 油轮是美国军方燃料采购计划的一部分。 市场担忧主要集中在，美伊或者伊朗-以色列紧张局势升级的任何后果将如何影响通过霍尔木兹海峡的 航运。该海峡将伊朗与阿拉伯半岛分隔开来，运载原油与液化天然气的众多油轮每天穿越海峡，将货物 运往全球各地。 另一方面，据俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克称 ...

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Marathon Petroleum said it bought two cargoes of Venezuelan crude oil at the end of January and expects its refineries to process more heavy grades, company executive said during a post-earnings call ... ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company achieved adjusted earnings per share of $10.70 and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $12 billion, with a cash flow from operations of $8.7 billion [13][5] - The fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share was reported at $4.07, with adjusted EBITDA around $3.5 billion [13][5] - The refining and marketing segment adjusted EBITDA per barrel was $5.63 for the year and $7.15 for the fourth quarter [13][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The midstream segment grew adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, reaching nearly $7 billion, while the refining and marketing segment's fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $2 billion [5][14] - Refining utilization was reported at 95% for the fourth quarter, with total throughput exceeding 3 million barrels per day [14][15] - The renewable segment achieved 94% utilization, benefiting from a one-time sale of credits [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global consumption trends for refined products remained steady, with gasoline and distillates each growing by approximately 1% and jet fuel demand increasing nearly 4% [6] - The global refining system is expected to remain tight, with limited new capacity coming online in 2026, further tightening U.S. markets due to regional closures [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest approximately $700 million in refining value-enhancing capital in 2026, focusing on lowering operating costs and enhancing system reliability [7] - Investments in marketing are set at $250 million to expand the reach of branded stations in targeted markets, supporting long-term secured offtake [8] - The company aims for a disciplined capital strategy, targeting returns of 25% or above on capital deployment [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains constructive on refined product demand, expecting growth to outpace capacity additions through the end of the decade [6] - The company anticipates that the structural demand growth across refined products will continue, supported by a strong midstream business outlook [10] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the energy markets, particularly in the context of MPLX's growth and distribution [12][20] Other Important Information - The company returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, including a 6.5% reduction in shares outstanding [13] - The company has a net debt to capital ratio within the range of 25%-30% and targets an annual cash balance of $1 billion [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capture Rate Performance - The capture rate was strong at 114%, attributed to optimization through the commercial team and improved structural capabilities [25][26] Question: Return of Capital Expectations - The company expects to match or exceed the $4.5 billion returned to shareholders in 2026 based on current market conditions [31][32] Question: Venezuelan Crude Absorption - The company views access to Venezuelan crude positively, with capabilities to absorb incremental barrels, enhancing its competitive position [35][36] Question: Refining Utilization Sensitivity - The company can adjust refining operations to optimize margins based on market conditions, demonstrating flexibility in its operations [50][51] Question: CapEx Guidance - The company expects a 20% reduction in refining capital expenditures in 2026, with further reductions anticipated in 2027 and 2028 [53][56] Question: Negotiations with USW - Ongoing negotiations with the United Steelworkers are progressing positively, with rolling extensions in place [64][65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company achieved adjusted earnings per share of $10.70 and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $12 billion, with a fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $4.07 and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.5 billion [13][14] - The company generated $8.3 billion in cash from operations and returned $4.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, reflecting a 6.5% reduction in shares outstanding [5][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The refining and marketing segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion for the fourth quarter, with refineries running at 95% utilization and total throughput just over 3 million barrels per day [14][15] - The midstream segment's adjusted EBITDA grew year-over-year, reaching a record of nearly $7 billion, although fourth quarter results declined due to divestitures of non-core assets [5][11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global refined product demand is expected to continue growing, with gasoline and distillates each increasing by roughly 1% and jet fuel demand rising nearly 4% [6] - The global refining system is anticipated to remain tight, with limited new capacity coming online in 2026, further tightening U.S. markets due to regional closures [6][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest approximately $700 million in refining value-enhancing capital in 2026, focusing on lowering operating costs and enhancing system reliability [7][10] - Investments in marketing will total $250 million to expand the reach of branded stations in targeted markets, supporting long-term secured offtake and enhancing performance [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about refined product demand and expects growth to outpace the net effect of capacity additions through the end of the decade [6][10] - The company emphasizes a disciplined capital strategy and aims for returns of 25% or above on capital investments, reflecting confidence in long-term opportunities across the energy space [10][12] Other Important Information - The company achieved its strongest process safety performance in the last four years and the lowest OSHA recordable injury rate, reflecting a commitment to safe and environmentally sound operations [5] - MPLX, the company's midstream segment, plans to invest $2.4 billion in growth capital, with 90% directed towards natural gas and NGL services, targeting a distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next two years [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capture rate performance - Management highlighted that the strong capture rate of 114% was driven by optimization through the commercial team and improved structural capabilities [25][26][28] Question: Return of capital expectations - Management indicated that based on current market conditions, they expect to match or exceed the previous year's capital return of $4.5 billion [31][32] Question: Incremental Venezuelan crude absorption - Management expressed confidence in their ability to absorb more Venezuelan crude, leveraging their system's capabilities and optimizing sour crude processing [35][36][39] Question: CapEx guidance and negotiations with USW - Management confirmed that CapEx for 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025, and negotiations with the USW are ongoing with positive dialogue [62][65][66]

FOURTH QUARTER 2025 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL February 3, 2026 M P C | 4 Q 2 0 2 5 1 M P C | 4 Q 2 0 2 5 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). These forward-looking statements may relate to, among other things, MPC's expectations, estimates and projections concerning its business and operations, financial priorities, strategic plans and initiatives, capital return plans, capital expenditure plans, operating cost reduct ...

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares have performed well over the past year, with a gain of approximately 20% due to an improved refining environment and aggressive stock repurchases by the company [1] Company Performance - The refining environment has shown significant improvement over the past year, contributing to the positive performance of Marathon Petroleum [1] - The company has been actively repurchasing its shares, which has likely supported the stock price increase [1]

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) came out with quarterly earnings of $4.07 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.77 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +48.90%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this refiner would post earnings of $3.11 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.01, delivering a surprise of -3.22%.Over the last four quarters, the compa ...