Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-13 23:20Market Overview - The domestic bond market experienced slight adjustments, remaining in a sideways consolidation phase over a longer time frame. Long-term bonds underperformed compared to medium and short-term bonds, with government bonds lagging behind policy financial bonds [3] - The market is currently driven by structural factors, lacking significant trend influences. The main trading theme continues to be the reinvestment of amortized cost method funds, favoring 3-5 year policy financial bonds and high-grade credit bonds [3][4] Financial Data Summary - In October, the net financing amount of government bonds was low, leading to a year-on-year decrease in social financing. However, other components showed overall stability [3] - Social financing in October was 814.9 billion, down from 352.96 billion in September, with a year-on-year change of -5.971 trillion [4] - The total credit (social financing perspective) was -20.1 billion in October, with a decrease in various financing categories including non-standard financing and loans to residents [4] Interest Rate and Yield Performance - The yield on government bonds showed varied performance across different maturities, with 1-year bonds at 1.2550%, 5-year bonds at 1.5300%, and 10-year bonds at 1.8025% [5] - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on the reinvestment drive from amortized cost method funds, while other trend-driving factors are yet to emerge [3][4] International Market Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end with the signing of a temporary funding bill, but the release of key economic data may be delayed, impacting market expectations [6][8] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with officials expressing reluctance to lower interest rates further unless there is clear evidence of labor market deterioration [7][8]