供需宽松格局驱动下沪镍持续走弱

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with both domestic and Indonesian refined nickel production on the rise, leading to increased supply pressure [1][2][4]. Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - As of November 12, the Shanghai nickel index closed at 118,870 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 0.55%, while London nickel prices fell below 15,000 USD/ton, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The overall nickel supply remains high, with domestic refined nickel production in October reaching 35,900 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cumulative refined nickel production from January to October reached 335,200 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.37% [2]. - Global nickel inventory as of October 31 stood at 303,400 tons, an increase of approximately 95,000 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and up 120,000 tons year-on-year, reaching a five-year high [2]. Group 3: Nickel Ore Supply - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is projected to be around 300 million wet tons by 2025, with demand estimated at 260 million wet tons, indicating a shift from a tight to a loose supply situation [3]. - Domestic nickel ore imports in September totaled 6.11 million tons, a slight decrease of 3.6% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 33% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to drive nickel prices lower, but the downward potential may be limited due to support from nickel ore prices and seasonal factors affecting mining capacity in the Philippines [4]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted its mining approval process from a three-year to a one-year system, which may introduce uncertainties in nickel ore supply [4].