铝价屡创年内新高 11月至12月铝价或高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for aluminum has shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract 2601 reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan per ton on November 13, driven by various macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price trends have been characterized by overall strong fluctuations, with multiple annual highs being set since the strong rise at the end of October [1] - Key macroeconomic factors contributing to this trend include the consensus reached in US-China tariff negotiations, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts, and a calming of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - Supply-side constraints, such as limited transportation of aluminum ingots during the heating season in Northwest China and reduced deliveries to East China, have provided fundamental support for aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for aluminum prices from November to December is expected to exhibit a pattern of "support on the downside and resistance on the upside," indicating high-level fluctuations [1] - Factors such as the upcoming US-China tariff window, potential disruptions in overseas supply, and low inventory levels are anticipated to support high aluminum prices [1] - However, the demand side is expected to transition into a low season in the fourth quarter, with a gradual decline in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, which may exert downward pressure on aluminum prices [1]