超跌修复还是趋势反转？来看“两苯”期价反弹背后的核心逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the prices of pure benzene and styrene futures, both rising over 2%, has sparked market interest, raising questions about whether this is a short-term recovery or a signal of a trend reversal, especially given the backdrop of declining oil prices and unchanged fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The rebound in "two benzene" prices is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, with pure benzene operating at over 80% capacity while downstream utilization has dropped to 69.39%, indicating a weak demand environment [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the rebound is driven by short-term factors, including a reduction in short positions and a temporary supply contraction due to high maintenance levels in styrene production, alongside a low inventory situation post-holiday [2][3]. Cost Factors - The cost support for "two benzene" prices is expected to weaken, as the previous rise in oil prices was largely due to geopolitical risks, and the global economic recovery remains sluggish, limiting oil demand growth [3][4]. - The expectation of increased supply from new refining capacities and imports in the coming months suggests that the long-term supply pressure on pure benzene will persist, despite short-term reductions in production [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Market participants are currently optimistic due to low inventory levels and a potential seasonal increase in styrene production in December, which may support pure benzene demand [4]. - However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with analysts indicating that the current price rebound does not signify a sustainable change in the supply-demand dynamics, which continue to favor a weak market [5].