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大金重工(002487):“大”展鸿图 “金”帆远扬

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the offshore wind sector, particularly in the tower and pile segment, while actively developing wind farms, gradually forming a business model of "offshore wind + power station operation" [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations in recent years due to a strategic shift to reduce domestic business scale, but profitability is improving as offshore wind deliveries increase and the delivery model evolves [1][2]. - The company anticipates significant performance growth starting in 2024, driven by increased offshore wind deliveries and improved gross margins [1][2]. Market Outlook - In 2025, the company expects to benefit from a surge in offshore wind project deliveries, with a substantial order backlog and a high overlap with current projects in Europe, which could lead to considerable revenue growth [2][4]. - The company is also poised to gain from domestic offshore wind projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu, enhancing its profit margins [2]. Long-term Growth Potential - The offshore wind market in Europe and Japan is projected to expand significantly by 2026, with the company positioned to capitalize on this growth through its competitive advantages in cost and capacity [3][4]. - The company has shifted to a more profitable "DAP" delivery model and established its own shipping fleet, which is expected to reduce transportation costs and enhance profitability [3][4]. - The company has become the first offshore wind pile manufacturer to receive SBTi certification, strengthening its competitive position in the global market [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 1.2 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24x and 18x [4]. - Given the favorable market conditions and the company's strategic positioning, a "buy" rating is recommended [4].