美联储哈玛克：通胀仍将高于目标 政策紧缩不可松懈

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]