Core Viewpoint - Haitong International reports that AUX Electric (02580) demonstrates excellent channel efficiency under the new retail model in the domestic market, while simultaneously advancing its OBM and ODM businesses in overseas markets. The global air conditioning market's expansion provides significant growth potential for the company, with an expected increase in market share. The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, potentially resulting in a dividend yield exceeding 10% by 2025 based on current stock prices and net profit assumptions. The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.96, 2.14, and 2.45 CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 14%. A 10x PE valuation for 2025 suggests a target price of 21.30 HKD, with an initial rating of "outperform the market" [1]. Group 1 - The company has a well-established product layout in air conditioning, with flexible capacity management effectively controlling risks. The establishment of a factory in Thailand expands overseas capacity, aligning with rising demand in Southeast Asia and providing flexibility to manage potential export trade barriers [2]. - The company has pioneered a new retail model in China, integrating online and offline channels to enhance channel efficiency, control terminal retail prices, and empower distributors to meet end-user demands. Benefiting from national subsidy policies, domestic air conditioning sales are expected to continue growing during 2024-2025. The efficient channel and market operation model is anticipated to support the company's performance above industry standards in the medium to long term [3]. Group 2 - In the overseas market, the company operates in over 150 countries and regions, establishing local sales teams to effectively conduct OBM business while ensuring stable growth in ODM orders through its strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities. The dual strategy of OBM and ODM is expected to drive rapid growth, with notable increases in business scale across Asia, Europe, and South America, leading to an anticipated rise in global market share [4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and profit, supported by its strong domestic market performance and impressive expansion in overseas markets. The domestic market is projected to benefit from the overall demand release and increased penetration in the air conditioning sector, while the flexible advancement of ODM and OBM businesses in international markets is expected to drive rapid global business expansion [5].
海通国际：首予奥克斯电气“优于大市”评级 目标价21.30港元