政府停摆致关键数据缺失，美联储12月降息预期骤降

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, but warnings remain high as only 3 out of 12 annual appropriations bills were passed, indicating a potential future shutdown in over two months [1] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the six-week shutdown will reduce the actual GDP growth rate by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a permanent loss of approximately $11 billion [1] - During the shutdown, around 750,000 federal employees were furloughed daily, leading to potential permanent impacts on inflation and unemployment reports [1] Group 2 - The Labor Statistics Bureau had to recall some furloughed employees to produce the September employment data, raising concerns about data quality and economic authenticity [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 51.6%, down from 59.4% the previous day [4] - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for no changes to bring inflation back to the 2% target, while others support a rate cut due to better-than-expected inflation data [4]