Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-14 01:59Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Chinese food delivery market is at a critical turning point, with overall order volume declining due to reduced subsidies and seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total daily order volume in the food delivery market has decreased from 151 million in September to a projected 141 million in November [2]. - The market share of Meituan has dropped to 50% (approximately 71 million daily orders), while Alibaba holds 42% (about 59 million daily orders), and JD.com has 8% (around 11 million daily orders) [2]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - Meituan's average loss per order has improved from 1.8 yuan in September to an expected 1.2 yuan in November, while Alibaba's loss per order is projected to be 3.0 yuan in November, and JD.com's is even higher at 4.8 yuan [4]. - Meituan is expected to achieve breakeven by mid-2026, with profits of 0.4-0.5 yuan per order in the second half of 2026, while Alibaba may still incur losses but will gradually narrow them [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Meituan is focusing on managing high-frequency, quality memberships and providing substantial coupon packages to enhance customer loyalty [5]. - Alibaba plans to continue significant investments in its food delivery and flash purchase businesses, aiming for breakeven and improving conversion rates from 2% to 4-5% [5]. - JD.com is concentrating on key flash purchase categories like 3C digital products and maternal and infant goods, serving its JD Plus members with a more focused strategy [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The intense subsidy competition is expected to ease by the first quarter of 2026, driven by regulatory scrutiny, seasonal demand fluctuations, and the unsustainability of high subsidies in the face of large order volumes [8].