海外黑天鹅突袭！低估大消费韧性较强

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals amid weakening U.S. employment data and manageable inflation have significantly reduced the probability of a rate cut in December, leading to a global stock market adjustment [1] Market Reaction - Major indices in the Asia-Pacific region, including Nikkei 225, Seoul Composite Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Hang Seng Index, experienced collective adjustments [1] - Concerns over valuation bubbles in the technology sector have emerged, while relatively undervalued sectors such as consumer goods and finance show resilience [1] Sector Performance - Concepts like winter tourism and duty-free shops have become active, with food and beverage ETFs (515170) and tourism ETFs (562510) briefly turning positive during trading [1] - According to Zhongyin International, the previously leading technology sector has entered a consolidation phase, and with the end of Q3 earnings disclosures, the market is entering an earnings vacuum period [1] Consumer Sector Outlook - The trend of CPI recovery is beginning to show, with a high correlation between essential consumer market performance and CPI year-on-year [1] - The profitability-valuation ratio comparison indicates a clear advantage for consumer styles, suggesting that under multiple catalysts, the consumer sector may experience a rotation and rebound opportunity [1]