Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-14 02:25Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering expanding its 3nm wafer production capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month, potentially increasing its total capacity from 140,000-150,000 wafers per month to 160,000-170,000 wafers per month by 2026, driven by strong demand from clients like NVIDIA [1][2][8] Group 1: Capacity Expansion - Morgan Stanley reports that TSMC's 3nm capacity may increase due to high demand from major clients, particularly NVIDIA [1][2] - TSMC's management indicated that all new cleanroom space will be allocated for 2nm expansion, necessitating adjustments in existing facilities to accommodate 3nm production [2] - The potential expansion could require an additional capital expenditure of $5 billion to $7 billion, raising TSMC's total capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of $48 billion to $50 billion [1][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for 3nm wafers is becoming increasingly urgent as major AI companies like NVIDIA and AMD place significant orders [2][8] - The report suggests that the bottleneck in AI chip supply has shifted from advanced packaging (CoWoS) to front-end wafer manufacturing capabilities and critical materials like ABF substrates [7][8] - By 2025, AI-related revenue is expected to account for 25% of TSMC's total revenue, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI sector [8] Group 3: Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - The anticipated increase in capital expenditure is viewed positively for the global semiconductor equipment industry, as it reflects TSMC's confidence in future market demand [5] - The shift in focus from packaging to wafer production highlights the evolving challenges within the semiconductor supply chain [7][8] - TSMC's expansion plans are a direct response to the ongoing capital race in the semiconductor industry, driven by the insatiable demand for advanced chips [8]