Vatee外汇：美联储对利率前景看法不一，通胀就业如何权衡？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is increasing public divergence among policymakers regarding the future direction of monetary policy [2][5]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Several regional Fed presidents have expressed differing views on inflation, employment, and interest rates, indicating rising uncertainty in the monetary policy path [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent high inflation affecting low- and middle-income families, and suggests that the neutral rate may be higher than commonly estimated [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% target and that policy should maintain some restrictiveness [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Bullard's expectation of a "strong rebound" in the economy in the first quarter of next year supports his cautious stance on rate cuts [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expresses reservations about the October rate cut decision, stating that he did not support it given the strong economic performance at that time, and emphasizes a data-driven approach for future meetings [4]. - The market's reaction indicates uncertainty, with interest rate futures pricing showing nearly a 50% chance of another rate cut in December, reflecting the complex economic situation facing the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Decisions - The divergence among Fed officials highlights the complexity of the U.S. economy, where inflation pressures remain, the labor market requires support, and economic prospects are variable [5]. - The differing conclusions drawn by Fed presidents based on their focus on various economic data points may become clearer with upcoming economic data releases [5].