TradeMax：美联储内部现政策分歧，市场降息预期明显降温

Core Viewpoint - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been inconsistent, leading to uncertainty in the market regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Caution - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that the current economic performance is stronger than expected, with most businesses showing confidence despite some credit tightening for low-income groups [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed that it is too early to draw conclusions about the December meeting, indicating that current policy is in a "neutral" state and further data is needed [3] Group 2: Increasing Support for Maintaining Rates - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that current interest rates have limited restrictive effects and should be maintained to continue cooling inflation, which may persist into early next year [4] - Boston Fed President Collins also advocated for keeping rates at current levels for some time, warning that strong economic growth could slow down inflation's decline [4] - Even traditionally dovish officials, such as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have shifted their stance recently [4] Group 3: Market Expectations Shift - Investor expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped to around 47%, a significant decrease from the near 100% expectation prior to the October meeting, indicating a reassessment of the Fed's policy direction [5] Group 4: Anticipated Divergence in December Meeting - Observers expect that regardless of the decision made in December, Fed Chair Powell may face more dissenting votes than usual, with two members already opposing the last meeting's decisions [6] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the need for "reverse suppression" of inflation, while Fed Vice Chair Jefferson advocated for caution in the absence of sufficient data [6]