美国政府停摆38天，竟引发大宗商品市场裂变！油价、铜价、黄金的三角谜题

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - A significant change in the price spread between the near-term and long-term WTI crude oil contracts has occurred, with the long-term contract price exceeding the near-term for the first time since February, indicating a "contango" structure and a clear signal of oversupply [1] - OPEC's latest report acknowledges a shift in the global oil market from under-supply to oversupply in Q3, with daily supply exceeding demand by 500,000 barrels, driven by record-high U.S. oil production and OPEC's decision to increase output to maintain market share [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to 13.58 million barrels per day by 2026, heightening concerns over inventory accumulation [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The market has reacted negatively to the oil sell-off, with WTI crude futures dropping 4.2% to $58.49 per barrel, marking the largest decline since June, while copper prices rose 1.08% to $10,944 per ton, reflecting a divergence in commodity market trends [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leading to expectations of weaker economic indicators that may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, which in turn has weakened the dollar and supported copper prices [5] - The global copper supply is under pressure due to production issues in major mines, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicting a 150,000-ton shortage in global copper supply by 2025, reinforcing upward price momentum [5] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been amplified by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, with global gold ETF holdings reaching a five-year high of 3,892 tons in October [7] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, with annual purchases expected to remain between 70-80 tons over the next two years, providing long-term support for gold prices [7] - The divergence in price movements among oil, copper, and gold is attributed to differing driving factors, with oil prices being more directly influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, while copper and gold are supported by financial attributes and supply constraints [8][10]