新能源汽车技术路线再洗牌，增程车为何掉队？

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in sales of range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) in the Chinese market, highlighting a shift towards pure electric vehicles (EVs) as their technology improves and consumer preferences change [1][3][8] Market Trends - Two years ago, Li Auto successfully introduced a range-extended system, making it the first among new energy vehicle companies to achieve annual profitability [1] - The popularity of REEVs led to a surge in competition, with multiple companies like AITO, Lantu, and Deep Blue launching similar products [1] - However, by mid-2023, sales of REEVs began to decline, with wholesale sales dropping for five consecutive months, and October's sales reaching 121,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [1][3] Consumer Preferences - The sales structure among new energy brands has shifted from a near-equal split of 49% for pure electric and 51% for REEVs in 2024 to 74% for pure electric and 26% for REEVs currently [1] - Improvements in pure electric vehicle range, charging convenience, and cost structure have reduced the appeal of REEVs [3][4] - Consumers are increasingly realizing that most daily commuting needs can be met by pure electric vehicles, leading to a decreased reliance on REEVs [3] Technological Developments - The average range of pure electric vehicles has increased from around 400 km to over 500 km, with some models exceeding 700 km [3] - Charging infrastructure has improved, alleviating issues like long wait times at charging stations during holidays [3] - The decline in battery costs has diminished the price advantage of REEVs, making pure electric vehicles more competitive [3][4] Industry Response - To enhance user experience, new REEV models are adopting a "large battery + small fuel tank" approach, with some models featuring battery capacities exceeding those of comparable pure electric vehicles [5] - The introduction of 800V high-voltage platforms and fast-charging technology aims to address the slow charging issue of larger battery REEVs [5] - There is a division within the industry regarding the optimal battery size for REEVs, with some advocating for larger batteries to improve user experience while others caution against resource waste [6] Regulatory Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, new regulations will raise the threshold for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles, requiring plug-in hybrid (including REEV) models to have a pure electric range of at least 100 km [6] - This policy aims to phase out less efficient "small battery + high fuel consumption" solutions, pushing the industry towards larger batteries and higher efficiency [6] Future Outlook - The future of REEVs may involve a shift towards green energy sources for their power generation, as companies explore alternatives like hydrogen fuel [7] - Despite the decline in popularity, REEVs may still serve a purpose in areas where charging infrastructure is lacking or for specific long-range needs [7][8] - The evolution of the REEV market reflects the dynamic nature of the automotive industry, emphasizing the importance of aligning technology with genuine consumer demand [8]