金价迎来重大拐点！11月13日信号明确，黄金市场恐将深度变盘

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by institutional investment rather than short-term speculation, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International spot gold prices have fluctuated around $4188 per ounce, with domestic gold T D prices reaching 956.65 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 1.31% [1]. - On November 12, the global largest gold ETF increased its holdings by 0.28 tons, bringing total holdings to 1046.64 tons, suggesting institutional confidence in the market [1][3]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's gold ETF saw an increase of 79.015 tons, a year-on-year growth of 164.03%, while global gold ETFs added 619 tons with a capital inflow of $640 billion [3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, with two rate cuts in 2025, has led to increased institutional investment in gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [5][9]. - Predictions indicate a high probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to further stimulate capital inflows into gold [5]. - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a long-term commitment to gold [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with ongoing conflicts contributing to market uncertainty [7]. - The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has become more pronounced, with a weakening dollar driving gold prices higher [9]. - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have broken through key resistance levels, indicating a potential for sustained upward movement [9][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor institutional flows and avoid high-leverage trading, with a recommended allocation of gold in asset portfolios kept within 10-20% [11]. - The current market conditions suggest that short-term pullbacks in gold prices may present buying opportunities, especially as long-term bullish factors remain intact [11].