芦哲：不为规模而冲量、呵护银行净息差

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for October 2025, indicating a significant decrease in social financing and loan growth compared to previous years, aligning with seasonal expectations [1][3][4]. Social Financing - In October 2025, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.97 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in social financing was attributed to a seasonal slowdown in loan issuance and government bond issuance, with a notable reduction in both RMB loans and government bond financing [1][4]. - Direct financing showed signs of recovery, with corporate bond financing increasing by 2.469 billion yuan, up 1.482 billion yuan year-on-year, and stock financing rising by 696 billion yuan, marking eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth [1][4]. Loan Issuance - Financial institutions reported an increase of 220 billion yuan in RMB loans for October 2025, which is 280 billion yuan lower than the same month last year and below seasonal averages [2][5]. - The total amount of loans to enterprises increased by 350 billion yuan, with short-term loans remaining stable compared to the previous year [5][6]. - Household loans decreased significantly, with short-term loans down by 2.866 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand despite promotional efforts [4][5]. Money Supply - As of the end of October 2025, M1 grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 8.2%, both showing a decline from the previous month [2][6]. - The increase in deposits was primarily driven by fiscal deposits, which rose by 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in fiscal spending intensity [6][7]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate spreads to protect banks' net interest margins, with a focus on improving asset quality [7]. - The average weighted interest rate for RMB loans was reported at 3.24%, with tax-adjusted rates aligning closely with government bond yields, limiting the scope for further rate cuts [7].