Group 1 - The company, Jiu Long Paper, is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion CNY for FY26-28, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [1] - The company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, evolving from a packaging-focused business to a comprehensive pulp and paper industry chain [1] - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion CNY for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to grow, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for box paper and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [2] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2] - The Guangdong Paper Association has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to resist low-price competition and optimize capacity structure, indicating a positive shift in industry direction [2] Group 3 - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% for new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton production costs [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons in raw materials by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [3]
天风证券:首予玖龙纸业“买入”评级 目标价6.6-8港元