中美和解“鸣金收兵”后，印度接下来的处境很凶险

Core Insights - The trade dispute between China and the U.S. has largely concluded, while the tariff conflict between India and the U.S. continues, with India facing higher tariffs than China [1][3] - The U.S. emphasizes the importance of U.S.-India relations but is unwilling to compromise on key terms, leaving India at a disadvantage compared to China in trade negotiations [4][5] - India's economic relationship with the U.S. is characterized by a lack of dependency, making it difficult for India to gain leverage in negotiations [4][5] Trade Relations - The U.S. and India are engaged in a tariff battle, with India suffering unilateral impacts and lacking effective countermeasures [3][5] - U.S. companies that shifted production to India to avoid U.S.-China tariffs are now facing higher costs due to increased tariffs in India [4] - India's hope to negotiate favorable terms with the U.S. has been complicated by the U.S. combining punitive tariffs with other trade discussions [5] Strategic Relations - The strategic relationship between the U.S. and India is tense, influenced by issues such as the India-Pakistan dispute and U.S. relations with Pakistan [9] - India's criticism of U.S. tariffs as unfair has not led to any substantial resolution of the trade issues [7][9] - The Modi government faces pressure domestically regarding its handling of U.S. relations, particularly in light of Trump's policies [10] Economic Positioning - India's role in the Indo-Pacific strategy has been to counterbalance China, but it has not secured the expected preferential treatment from the U.S. [7][10] - The U.S. has shifted its approach to treat all countries equally in terms of tariffs, which has caught India off guard [7][10] - The lack of effective negotiation power for India may lead to increased pressure from the U.S. in future discussions [10]