Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is actively promoting anti-involution through polysilicon inventory management, but faces challenges due to the involvement of multiple companies and the need for substantial financial support. Technological iteration is seen as a less resistant option to clear excess capacity, with perovskite technology showing significant efficiency advantages over existing crystalline silicon technology, potentially accelerating the exit of outdated capacity and helping the industry recover from cyclical lows [1]. Group 1: Efficiency and Stability - Conversion efficiency of perovskite has significantly improved from 3.8% in 2009 to over 26% currently, with companies like GCL-Poly achieving 19.04% efficiency on 1m*2m panels and tandem cells nearing 30% efficiency [2]. - The stability of high-efficiency laboratory results is being addressed, with notable advancements in stability research, including a perovskite solar cell developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences that exceeds 27% efficiency with controlled degradation [3]. Group 2: Commercialization and Policy Support - GW-level production lines are set to be launched by companies like Extreme Solar and GCL-Poly in 2025, with more planned capacity expected to come online by 2026. The first full-size perovskite module from GCL-Poly was produced on October 29, 2025, indicating a push towards commercial viability [4]. - Policy support for the development of new photovoltaic technologies is evident, with recent government initiatives focusing on perovskite materials and advanced photovoltaic technologies, which could enhance capacity iteration in the current anti-involution phase of the industry [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the perovskite sector include equipment manufacturers such as Dier Laser, Jiejia Weichuang, and others, as well as perovskite module producers like Hangzhou Colin and GCL Technology. Additionally, TCO glass and perovskite encapsulant manufacturers are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6].
申万宏源:钙钛矿助力光伏行业反内卷 市场发展潜力巨大