百利好丨黄金再上4240美元，还能不能买？

Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in spot gold prices this week reflect heightened market sentiment, with prices reaching a new high since October 21 before retreating due to profit-taking, ultimately closing at $4171.2 per ounce, a daily decline of 0.58% [1] Short-term Catalysts - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to a 42-day U.S. government shutdown, delays in key economic data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and international trade relations have driven funds into gold [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to over 65%, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index below 99.5, which reduces the holding cost of gold [3] - Technical support for gold prices was established after stabilizing above $4180, triggering systematic buying strategies and attracting further bullish investments after breaking the $4200 resistance [3] Long-term Structural Factors - Central banks globally have net purchased 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for about 30% of annual gold production, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months, totaling 7.409 million ounces [4] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves has decreased to 55%, with some views suggesting that gold is gradually becoming an alternative asset to replace part of sovereign credit [4] - The function of gold is evolving from a traditional inflation hedge to a strategic allocation against sovereign credit risk, indicating a structural shift in institutional investment logic [5] Trend Outlook - The support logic for gold prices remains solid in the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is not yet over, and the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, alongside a diversification process in the global reserve system, enhancing gold's role as a credit hedge in asset portfolios [6] - Some institutions predict that gold prices could reach the range of $7000 to $8000 by 2030, while acknowledging that increased volatility during high price periods has become the new norm, with market sentiment driving significant price fluctuations [6]