BBMarkets：缩表刚停、利率再飙，美联储离重启QE还有多远？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. money market is signaling liquidity concerns again, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising and the gap between SOFR and the Interest on Reserves (IOR) widening to 8 basis points, indicating a shift from ample to scarce reserves in the banking system [2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Signals - The three-party repo rate has also risen above the IOR by 0.8 basis points, suggesting a tightening liquidity environment [2] - As of early November, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance was approximately $3.1 trillion, significantly lower than the pandemic peak of $4.3 trillion [3] - Historical patterns indicate that when the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) approaches or exceeds the IOR, the Fed typically slows or halts balance sheet reduction [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market participants are already pricing in expectations for balance sheet expansion, with predictions that the Fed may announce Reserve Management Purchases as early as December, injecting $750 billion to $1 trillion monthly into the system [5] - The Treasury's plan to increase the General Account (TGA) balance from $75 billion to $850 billion by year-end will likely withdraw equivalent reserves from the system [5] - Regulatory pressures, particularly the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) year-end checks, are causing large banks to reduce their balance sheets, further tightening liquidity [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials have shown a subtle shift in tone, acknowledging that reserves are nearing the lower end of the ample range, with a growing likelihood of policy adjustments if necessary [6] - Futures data indicates a 70% probability of the Fed initiating technical balance sheet expansion in December, up from 30% a month prior [6] - The transition from surplus to scarcity in reserves is expected to be bumpier than anticipated due to regulatory, fiscal, and year-end demand pressures [6]