Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a dynamic balance between supply surplus and sanction risks, leading to a slight increase in oil prices as market participants assess these factors [4][6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [4][5] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for global oil demand, projecting an increase from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2040, delaying the peak demand prediction from 2034 to 2040 due to various factors [2][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.413 million barrels last week, the largest increase since July, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.96 million barrel increase [5] - Despite the increase in crude oil inventories, signs of resilience in both domestic and international oil demand are indicated by a comprehensive decline in refined product inventories and a rebound in exports [5][6] - OPEC has acknowledged that global supply exceeded demand in the third quarter, contradicting previous expectations of a supply shortage [4] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The current oil market is characterized by a "soft power" adjustment phase, where hard data on supply surplus interacts with the soft impacts of sanctions, creating complex market psychological expectations [6] - Future competition in the oil industry is expected to focus on the establishment of technical standards, financial rule restructuring, alliance management capabilities, and value innovation [5][6] - The shift in focus from resource control to rule reconstruction and value innovation is emphasized, indicating a transformation in how oil market dynamics are managed [4][6]
邓正红能源软实力：供应过剩与制裁风险的动态平衡 石油需求具有韧性增长将持
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-14 07:08