美印关税大战，棉花成关键？特朗普喊话，“印度会再次爱上美国”

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the cotton and tariff dynamics between the United States and India, highlighting the dual challenges faced by India due to increased tariffs and potential trade agreements [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Indian Economy - In August 2025, India faced significant economic challenges as the U.S. imposed two rounds of tariffs, leading to reduced orders for Indian exporters and layoffs in factories [1][5]. - The first round of tariffs included a 25% increase on various key export categories, while the second round targeted Indian purchases of Russian energy, resulting in total tariffs exceeding 50% on Indian goods [7][12]. - The textile industry, which employs approximately 45 million people and contributes 2.3% to India's GDP, is particularly affected, with a significant decline in exports anticipated [12][17]. Group 2: Cotton Production Decline - India's cotton production has been on a downward trend, decreasing from 36 million bales in the 2020 fiscal year to an expected 29.5 million bales in the 2024/25 fiscal year, marking a ten-year low [14]. - The decline in cotton production, coupled with rising export demands, has forced India to import cotton, which has not resolved the underlying issues caused by high tariffs [14][18]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Strategic Relations - In response to the ongoing crisis, India has initiated a reassessment of its trade relationship with the U.S., leading to the resumption of trade negotiations in September 2025 [20][31]. - India has made concessions, including the suspension of cotton import tariffs and consideration of lifting restrictions on U.S. non-GMO corn imports, aiming to negotiate tariff reductions on textiles [22][23]. - The U.S. has emphasized the strategic importance of its relationship with India, highlighting the potential market opportunities for American companies in India’s growing middle class [28][29]. Group 4: Russian Support and Energy Needs - Concurrently, Russia has offered nuclear technology support to India, aligning with India's energy needs and its goal to achieve 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047 [33][36]. - This cooperation is seen as a strategic move by Russia to strengthen its partnership with India, especially in light of the pressures from U.S. trade negotiations [40].