Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated that the GDP is expected to decline by 1.5% in the fourth quarter due to the government shutdown, signaling a slowdown in economic momentum which may weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Hassett's dovish statement suggests that there are few reasons to avoid interest rate cuts, which aligns with market expectations for a shift in monetary policy, potentially lowering interest rates and reducing the holding costs of gold, thus providing fundamental support for gold prices [1] - The chaotic economic data and uncertainty create a favorable environment for gold prices, as the government shutdown has resulted in a significant loss of $1.5 trillion, with the full impact taking weeks or months to clarify, leading investors to seek hard assets like gold to hedge against uncertainty [1] Structural Changes - Deep structural changes globally are undermining the dollar system, with European financial stability officials discussing the establishment of an alternative liquidity support mechanism to the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration [2] - This movement reflects a continued trend of de-dollarization and deep concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. political and policy frameworks, which could ultimately weaken the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [2] - A loss of confidence in the dollar could significantly enhance gold's monetary attributes and its function as a store of value [2] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of approximately 4244.9 before a pullback, with bullish momentum indicated by the price crossing above the MA60, suggesting potential for further upward movement [5] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may indicate a short-term pullback opportunity, with a strategy focused on finding support levels to enter long positions [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested around 4199.0 with a stop loss at 4189.0 and a target range of 4220.0 to 4244.9 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) has also shown a strong upward trend, with the price crossing above MA20 and MA60, indicating continued bullish momentum [9] - A long position for silver is recommended around 52.94 with a stop loss at 52.70 and a target range of 54.29 to 55.50 [10] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the Eurozone's adjusted trade balance for September, U.S. retail sales for October, and PPI figures for October, which may impact market sentiment and trading strategies [10]
领峰环球金银评论：降息预期再升温 黄金牛市悄然启航
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-14 08:36