PPL International金评：美股受挫带动国际金价短期回调下跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in spot gold prices, with a notable drop from $4245 to around $4150, indicate a strong tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market [1] Market Analysis - Recent negative news includes three Federal Reserve officials expressing caution regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which has reduced the market's expectation of a rate cut in October from 60% to 51%, contributing to gold's weakness [2] - The primary reason for the recent decline in gold prices is attributed to excessive buying pressure, as gold had risen significantly from the $4000 mark amidst similar comments from Federal Reserve officials about exploring rate cuts [2] - The drop in gold prices coincided with a significant decline in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these markets are influencing gold's performance negatively [2][4] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The underlying logic for the current market conditions is the tightening liquidity in the U.S., prompting the Federal Reserve to consider expanding its balance sheet to inject liquidity [4] - Historically, when U.S. stocks decline, gold tends to rise, indicating that the current downward trend in gold may be a short-term effect [4] Technical Analysis - Spot gold reached a high of $4210 before retreating to a low of $4160, which is identified as a critical support level [5] - If gold can maintain above the $4160 support level, it may signal the end of the recent downward trend, with strong buying interest noted in the $4150-$4160 range [5] - The overall strategy suggests a bullish outlook for gold, with key support levels at $4150 and $4100, and potential targets at $4200 and $4160 [7]