百利好晚盘分析：降息摇摆不定 金价震荡调整

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut in October, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments indicate significant division among officials regarding future cuts, which may pressure gold prices in the short term [1] - The recent end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to a cautious market sentiment, as economic data from the shutdown period is expected to be released soon [1] - Analyst Chen Yu suggests that while short-term fluctuations in gold prices are likely, the long-term bullish trend remains intact due to declining dollar credibility [1] - Technically, gold prices are currently above the 20-day moving average, but there is a risk of a pullback, with support at $4152 [1] Oil Market - OPEC's latest report predicts an increase in oil supply from competitors, leading to a potential oversupply in the global oil market, exacerbated by rising exports from the Middle East [2] - Despite sanctions, Russia's oil production increased to 9.411 million barrels per day in October [2] - On the demand side, China's refinery utilization rate rose to 52.45% in early November, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated market concerns, as the fear index has risen, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economic outlook [2] - Technically, oil prices are currently below the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $62 and support at $59 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - President Trump stated that the government shutdown resulted in a $1.5 trillion loss, and the economic outlook is under pressure, with a projected 1.5% decline in GDP for Q4 due to the shutdown [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 51.6%, indicating a potential strengthening of the dollar [3] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below the 20-day moving average, suggesting further downside potential, with support at 98.87 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a consolidation phase, with potential for continued adjustment [4] - The index is currently below the 20-day moving average, indicating a need for caution regarding further downside risks [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strength after testing the 62-day support level, indicating bullish momentum [5] - The market remains above both the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting continued bullish sentiment [5] - Attention is on the potential test of support at $5 [5] Economic Overview - The International Monetary Fund has indicated that pressures on the U.S. economy are increasing, with Q4 growth expected to be below the previously forecasted 1.9% due to the government shutdown [6] - Federal Reserve official Daly stated that it is too early to predict the December rate cut, maintaining an open stance [6] - The Trump administration has lifted the ban on oil reserve extraction in Alaska [6] Upcoming Data/Events - Key economic data releases include U.S. October retail sales and PPI, along with a speech from Fed's Bostic [7]