10月房地产市场延续调整态势

Core Insights - The national real estate market in China continues to show signs of adjustment, with new residential property sales area declining by 6.8% and sales revenue decreasing by 9.6% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [1][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The total area of unsold residential properties has decreased for eight consecutive months, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters from September to October, bringing the total unsold area to 75.606 million square meters [2][1] - Real estate development investment from January to October reached 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, with residential investment at 565.95 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% [5] - The new construction area for residential properties fell by 19.8% to 49.061 million square meters, with residential new starts down 19.3% to 35.952 million square meters [5] Group 2: Price Trends - In October, among the four first-tier cities, only Shanghai saw a year-on-year price increase of 0.3%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [5] - Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.4%, with cities like Shenyang, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Urumqi showing slight increases [5] - No city among the 70 monitored experienced a price increase in the second-hand housing market in October, with Tangshan and Zhengzhou showing the largest year-on-year declines of 8.3% and 8.2% respectively [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The analysis indicates that high inventory levels in smaller cities continue to exert downward pressure on prices, with cities having a de-inventory cycle exceeding 20 months facing significant challenges [6] - The overall market is expected to exhibit a pattern of "stable volume, weak price, and ongoing differentiation" in November and December, driven by year-end performance targets for developers and potential government subsidies [6] - The core 24 cities are anticipated to show noticeable increases in transaction volumes, while many third- and fourth-tier cities are expected to maintain basic transaction levels [6]