【一带一路·观察】印尼可再生能源投资机遇分析

Core Insights - Indonesia, with a population of approximately 280 million, is the fourth most populous country in the world and the largest economy in ASEAN, maintaining an average GDP growth rate of over 5% in recent years [2] - As the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and the third-largest coal producer, Indonesia's energy structure has been predominantly fossil fuel-based, but it is accelerating its energy transition to address climate change challenges [2] - The article analyzes the current state of Indonesia's electricity market, renewable energy investment policies, and the main challenges faced, aiming to provide insights for Chinese enterprises looking to invest in renewable energy in Indonesia [2] Electricity Market Overview - The electricity governance in Indonesia involves multiple institutions, including legislative, policy execution, and regulatory coordination roles, creating a collaborative framework [3] - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) oversees the electricity sector, with the Electricity Bureau and New Renewable Energy Bureau responsible for regulation and policy implementation [3][4] - As of 2024, Indonesia's total installed capacity is 100.65 GW, with traditional energy sources (coal and natural gas) accounting for 78.5% and renewable energy only 14.2%, indicating significant growth potential [5] Electricity Planning System - Indonesia's electricity capacity planning follows a centralized management model, guided by a series of hierarchical policies and planning documents, including the National Energy Policy (KEN) and the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN) [7][8] - The RUPTL (Electricity Supply Business Plan) outlines a 10-year commercial plan detailing investment needs and forecasts for electricity demand and production [9] Renewable Energy Development Goals - The RUPTL 2025-2034, approved in May 2025, plans to add 69.5 GW of new generation capacity over the next decade, with a focus on diversifying energy sources and significantly increasing renewable energy capacity [10] - Total investment for this plan is estimated at $185.5 billion, with approximately 73% expected to be funded by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) [10] Renewable Energy Investment Policies - The Indonesian government has relaxed foreign investment restrictions in the electricity sector, allowing 100% foreign ownership for projects over 1 MW, facilitating market entry for Chinese enterprises [13] - The electricity pricing structure has been clarified to enhance predictability for renewable energy projects, detaching from coal pricing constraints [14] - The procurement process for renewable energy projects has been simplified, allowing for direct appointments and selections based on technical pre-assessment and lowest bid [15] Challenges in Renewable Energy Investment - Policy execution risks exist due to lengthy approval processes and complex coordination among multiple government departments, which can delay project development [21] - The financing environment is challenging, with local banks offering limited support for green energy projects, leading to high financing costs and currency mismatch risks [22] - Localization policies pose challenges for foreign enterprises, particularly in the solar sector, where local component efficiency and supply chain issues can impact project viability [23] - Land acquisition is complicated by high privatization levels and disputes over land rights, increasing project uncertainty [24] - The low interconnection of Indonesia's electricity grid limits the capacity to absorb renewable energy, posing risks to project feasibility and operational stability [25] Conclusion - Indonesia presents significant opportunities for renewable energy investment, supported by a growing market demand and clear policy direction, but challenges related to execution, financing, localization, land acquisition, and grid stability must be carefully assessed [27]