森麒麟(002984)季报点评：业绩环比改善 摩洛哥放量可期

Core Insights - The company experienced a sequential recovery in Q3 2025, but profitability remains under pressure due to various factors [1] - The EU's anti-dumping investigation is expected to benefit the company's overseas production capacity [2] - The company has established a robust overseas market presence with a comprehensive sales system [3] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to the impact of tariffs and new factory ramp-up [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.015 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.17% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.94% and a sequential increase of 12.35% [1] - The company's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 343 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.03% but a sequential increase of 10.56% [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has a global production capacity with 16 million semi-steel tires and 2 million all-steel tires in Thailand, and 12 million semi-steel tires in Morocco, positioning it well for global competition [2] - The company has successfully supplied winter tire products to major automotive manufacturers, enhancing its brand influence in the global market [2] - As of H1 2025, overseas sales accounted for 90.87% of total revenue, with a strong presence in over 150 countries and regions [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting operating revenues of 8.458 billion yuan, 11.273 billion yuan, and 11.946 billion yuan respectively [4] - The projected net profits for the same period are 1.401 billion yuan, 1.913 billion yuan, and 2.088 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.35 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and 2.02 yuan [4]