10月三大投资均回落，利好因素有望巩固增长势能

Economic Overview - The economic environment remains unstable and uncertain, with various challenges facing domestic economic operations, necessitating efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to maintain the economic foundation [3][7]. Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous month's growth of 3.0% [4]. - Despite being a traditional peak consumption season, consumption data showed a slight downturn in October [9]. Investment - From January to October, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, a decline from the previous period's decrease of 0.5% [5][14]. - Investment in infrastructure fell by 0.1%, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% [5][18][25]. - Private investment saw a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year decline of 4.5% from January to October, indicating a worsening trend [22]. Production - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in September [6][19]. - The manufacturing sector faced challenges due to weakened external demand and reduced expansion intentions among enterprises [21]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with real estate development investment down 14.7% year-on-year from January to October [25]. - New residential sales area decreased by 7.0%, and the real estate development enterprise's available funds fell by 9.7% year-on-year [27][31]. - The real estate sector's decline has significant implications for overall economic growth, with estimates suggesting it could lower GDP growth by over 3 percentage points [31]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that the new quality productivity will become the core engine of future economic growth, with significant opportunities in high-tech and emerging industries during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [33][34]. - The focus will be on industries aligned with national strategies such as carbon neutrality, digital economy transformation, and high-end manufacturing upgrades [34].