TMGM外汇：全球石油需求增长至2040年？高盛修正预测

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global oil demand growth cycle will last longer than previously anticipated, influenced by the costs of low-carbon technologies, infrastructure development, and overall energy demand expansion [1][3] Demand Forecast - The daily global oil demand is expected to rise from approximately 103.5 million barrels in 2024 to about 113 million barrels by 2040, contrasting with last year's prediction of a peak in 2034 [3] - The petrochemical sector's demand is projected to increase, while the aviation industry continues to grow, and road transport's contribution to overall demand is expected to weaken after a prolonged period of stability [3] Long-term Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also adjusted its long-term forecasts, indicating that oil and gas demand will continue to grow and may peak around 2050, primarily due to the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles [3] - In Goldman Sachs' view, while low-carbon technologies are developing, significant breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term, and the expansion of alternatives like liquefied natural gas trucks is limited outside of China [3] Market Transition - The energy market is currently in a transitional phase, shifting the focus from "when will demand peak" to "how the pace of change will evolve," with a strong resilience in oil demand observed [4] - The long-term trajectory of oil demand will require finding a new balance among technology, policy, and economic factors [4]