年底前金价怎么走？这些风险要注意！

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a significant drop of nearly $100 from its recent high due to profit-taking after the U.S. government reopened, indicating a decline in speculative sentiment [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut now slightly above 49%, showing a notable decrease [3]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to remain relatively calm in the last one and a half months of the year, as Trump's tariff policies face challenges and may require reassessment [3]. - The holiday season in December is likely to reduce trading activity and liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite maintaining a long-term upward trend, the international gold price has seen two rapid increases that have exhausted buying momentum, particularly the surge from September to October [4]. - The consecutive declines after October 21 have impacted bullish confidence, which may take time to recover, especially in the absence of significant fundamental stimuli [4]. - If the year-end market is driven by technical trends, gold prices may continue to fluctuate around the $4000 per ounce mark, with a potential drop to the support level of $3750 per ounce if previous lows are breached [5].