【环球财经】美国政府“停摆”致经济数据缺失 美联储12月降息预期下降

Core Viewpoint - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has disrupted key economic data collection, leading to uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a December rate cut decreasing significantly [2][3]. Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in the potential permanent unavailability of critical economic indicators such as the unemployment rate and inflation data for October [3]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming official employment and consumption data will likely be weaker than market expectations, as various employment-related indicators have shown a downward trend [5]. Federal Reserve Divergence - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future of interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing caution about further cuts in December [3][4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that it is too early to conclude whether a rate cut will occur in December, emphasizing the current policy appears "relatively neutral" [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack raised concerns that continued rate cuts could undermine the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation [3]. Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path and the potential for a K-shaped economic recovery has led to a significant decline in U.S. stock markets, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points and the Nasdaq falling over 2% [6]. - The ongoing AI investment trend is also a topic of debate, with concerns that fluctuations in the AI sector could lead to broader economic instability [6]. Long-term Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown could reduce U.S. economic growth by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter [5]. - The K-shaped recovery indicates a growing divide in consumer purchasing power, particularly affecting low-income consumers if the job market continues to weaken [5].