一周热榜精选：数据“消失”不影响美联储放鹰！AI泡沫带崩美股？

Market Overview - The US dollar index faced slight pressure this week, dipping below the 99 mark, and is expected to close lower for the second consecutive week. The longest government shutdown in US history has ended, but key economic data will take time to be released. Fed officials have signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December [1] - Precious metals prices rose overall, with spot gold reaching a high of $4245 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying. Spot silver saw a similar trend but with a larger increase, rising nearly 10% at one point. However, both gold and silver experienced a sharp decline on Friday, narrowing their weekly gains [1] - Oil prices for WTI and Brent crude saw significant mid-week declines followed by a rebound. OPEC's latest report adjusted its forecast for a "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" for Q3, while the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting that demand will stop growing by the end of this decade [1] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The US government shutdown has ended, but key economic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI remain absent. The shutdown is estimated to have caused a GDP decline of over 0.1%. The release of economic data may take months to normalize due to staffing shortages and leadership vacancies [6][7] - Market analysis suggests that unless there are significant surprises in delayed data, the rationale for a third rate cut by the Fed this year is rapidly diminishing. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is now at 51.6%, down from 95.5% a month ago [8][9] - Several Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, indicating a preference for maintaining current rates due to high inflation and the absence of key data. The Fed's stance is complicated by internal disagreements among officials regarding the economic outlook and policy direction [9][10] Corporate Developments - Nomura expects the Fed to pause rate cuts in December, while UBS predicts that global gold demand will reach its highest level since 2011 this year and next. JPMorgan Private Bank forecasts gold prices to exceed $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5] - Alibaba has reportedly launched a secret project called "Qianwen," aimed at developing a personal AI assistant to compete with ChatGPT. This initiative is seen as a significant move to integrate AI capabilities into its e-commerce platform [24] - SoftBank has completed the liquidation of its Nvidia shares, raising $5.83 billion to fund an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI. This decision has led to a significant drop in SoftBank's stock price [25][26] Geopolitical Events - The US has initiated "Operation Southern Shield" to combat drug-related terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, with military actions already taken against suspected drug trafficking vessels [11][12] - Venezuela is preparing for potential military action from the US by deploying guerrilla tactics, having established combat positions at over 280 sites [13][14] - Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated following bombings in both capitals, leading to a declaration of war readiness by Pakistan [19]