“黑色星期五”！美联储鹰爪重创全球股市，黄金狂泻逾100美元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, impacting the outlook for a rate cut in December, yet economic uncertainty continues to support gold prices for a weekly gain [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold reached a peak of $4,211.06 per ounce before falling below $4,070, with a daily decline exceeding $100 and a drop of over 2% [1]. - The market is facing skepticism regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts, limiting upward movement in gold prices, as highlighted by ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista [3]. - The recent U.S. government shutdown disrupted the release of key economic data, contributing to the cautious sentiment in the market [3]. Group 2: Broader Market Impact - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, with the European Stoxx 600 index dropping 1.5%, and major indices in Germany, France, and the UK also falling [3]. - Increased volatility in the forex market was noted, with investors flocking to safe-haven currencies amid stock sell-offs [4]. Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Inflation Concerns - The cryptocurrency market also faced sharp declines, with Bitcoin dropping 5% and Ethereum falling below $3,100 [5]. - Despite two rate cuts by the Fed this year, concerns about inflation and a stable labor market have weakened expectations for further cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December now at 49% [5]. Group 4: Physical Demand and Technical Factors - Physical demand for gold in major Asian markets has weakened, with high prices suppressing purchasing activity, particularly in India where gold discounts reached a five-month high [5]. - The recent rise in gold prices may have been amplified by a "gamma squeeze," a technical phenomenon where sellers of low-priced options are forced to buy gold futures for hedging [5][6]. - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities noted that the recent rebound in gold aligns with this dynamic, as reduced trading volumes make the market more susceptible to shocks [6].