Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Bear, & Baseline Forecasts (Nov 14)

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. has been a significant success in the stock market, with a stock price increase of over 316,600% since its IPO in 1997, and it is now a key player in e-commerce and cloud services. The focus is on predicting its stock performance by 2030 through bullish, bearish, and baseline scenarios [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance - From 2014 to 2024, Amazon's shares surged by over 1,025%, increasing from $19.94 to $223.75, with a notable gain of 150.70% from March 2020 to December 2024 [6]. - Revenue grew from $89 billion to $638 billion, a 616% increase, while net income rose from $0.241 billion to $59.2 billion, translating to a 24,664.3% gain [7]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Future Performance - E-commerce Success: Amazon accounted for 40% of all U.S. e-commerce sales in 2023, despite e-commerce representing only 15% of total retail sales, indicating strong market dominance [9]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS): AWS is the largest cloud provider and most profitable segment, generating $107.6 billion in sales in 2024, but faces competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [10]. - Advertising Revenue: In 2024, Amazon's advertising revenue reached $56.2 billion, nearly doubling from the previous three years, and is expected to continue growing [11]. Group 3: Stock Price Predictions for 2030 - Bull Case: The stock price could reach $431 if AWS maintains an 18% CAGR, leading to $150 billion in operating profits [12][14]. - Bear Case: The stock price could drop to $77 if the P/E ratio reflects a low-growth state, despite net income growth [15]. - Baseline Case: Analysts predict revenue growth from $710 billion in 2025 to $1.153 trillion by 2030, with net income projected to rise from $48.9 billion to $110.7 billion [16][17].