Seagate's Shares Climb 204.7% YTD: Should You Buy STX Now?

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc's shares have increased by 204.7% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry's growth of 93.5% and the broader S&P 500's growth of 18.3% [1][9][25] - The company has outperformed competitors in the storage sector, including Western Digital Corporation, Pure Storage, and Micron Technology, which have seen gains of 163.5%, 36.7%, and 181.5%, respectively [2][9] Financial Performance - Seagate reported a 21% year-over-year revenue growth in its fiscal first quarter, driven by strong demand for high-capacity storage solutions, particularly from cloud service providers [5][9] - Data center sales accounted for 80% of Seagate's total revenue of $2.1 billion, reflecting a 34% year-over-year increase [12][14] - The company achieved a record gross margin of 40.1%, improving nearly 680 basis points year over year, and anticipates revenues of $2.7 billion for the fiscal second quarter, indicating a 16% year-over-year improvement [18][22] Product and Market Positioning - Seagate is strategically positioned in the global storage ecosystem, benefiting from the AI-driven data explosion and increasing demand for high-capacity storage [5][22] - The company is advancing its HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology, with significant production scaling of 24–28TB PMR drives, which are now its top-selling line [6][10] - Seagate is also qualifying its Mozaic 4+TB-per-disk platform, with expectations for volume ramping in early 2026, and is developing 5TB-per-disk technology for early 2028 [11][12] Strategic Roadmap - Seagate's strategic transformation includes restructuring its revenue streams across Data Center and Edge IoT markets, with a focus on high-capacity nearline products [12][14] - The company is committed to reducing its debt load while maintaining shareholder returns, having reduced debt by $684 million during fiscal 2025 [15][16] - Seagate's business model changes and strong product pipeline are expected to enhance profitability and cash flow in fiscal 2026 [15][18] Market Outlook - The demand from global cloud providers remains robust, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI and large-scale inferencing needs [13][14] - Seagate is experiencing an uptrend in earnings estimate revisions, with fiscal 2026 earnings estimates increasing by 7% to $11.02 [20] - The company's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 23.18, which is lower than the industry average of 26.58 but above its historical mean of 12.01 [21]