Is Upstart Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell After a Steep 41% 3-Month Drop?

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) has experienced significant stock volatility, dropping over 41% in the last three months despite reporting strong quarterly results [1][7] - The decline is attributed to broader market trends affecting high-growth fintech companies and concerns over Upstart's conservative lending models [1][11] Financial Performance - In Q3, Upstart reported total revenues of $277 million, a 71% increase year-over-year, and loan originations of approximately $2.9 billion, up 80% [3] - The company's AI-driven credit models adjusted approval rates in response to macroeconomic signals, leading to a decrease in conversion rates from 23.9% in Q2 to 20.6% in Q3 [4][3] Product Diversification - Upstart's newer products, including auto, home equity, and small-dollar loans, contributed nearly 12% of total originations, with auto retail loan activity growing over 70% sequentially [5][8] - Instant approvals for small-dollar loans improved significantly, with funding times reduced to under two minutes for qualified borrowers [8] Funding and Partnerships - The company achieved its best quarter for new bank and credit union partnerships, adding seven partners and reaching an all-time high in available monthly funding [9] - Upstart maintained 100% retention of all private credit partners and completed a successful securitization in September, indicating strong investor interest [9] Market Concerns - Despite operational improvements, there are concerns regarding model volatility and the larger-than-normal loan balance as the company transitions new products [11][12] - The stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates, which adds volatility beyond the company's fundamentals [13] Valuation and Estimates - Recent estimate revisions show an upward trend for the full-year 2025 EPS but downward revisions for 2026, indicating mixed market sentiment [14] - Upstart shares are currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.11, slightly below the industry average [16] Conclusion - Upstart's recent performance contrasts with its stock decline, highlighting improvements in revenues, profitability, and product expansion [17] - The company presents a promising long-term investment opportunity, but requires steadier macro signals and consistent model calibration for a stronger buy case [18]