耶伦警告：美国政治制度面临“致命危险”，正侵蚀经济繁荣基石

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that the American democratic system is facing "fatal danger," threatening the fundamental basis of economic prosperity [1] Group 1: Rule of Law - Yellen emphasizes the importance of the rule of law for capitalism, citing research by Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, which indicates that societies with weak rule of law struggle to achieve economic growth [3] - She expresses concern that economic policy decisions are increasingly based on personal will and resentment rather than established rules, leading to a lack of fair treatment and non-political enforcement of laws [3] Group 2: Business Climate - Yellen notes a troubling trend where fear is suppressing normal policy debate within the business community, with individuals and companies hesitant to express negative views due to potential political retaliation [3] - The White House responded to Yellen's concerns by highlighting perceived failures of the Biden administration, including immigration law enforcement and inflation management [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Yellen is particularly worried about unprecedented pressures on the Federal Reserve, including former President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and attempts to dismiss Fed officials [4] - She criticizes Trump's actions as breaking long-standing norms of non-interference in monetary policy, which could undermine the Fed's mission of maximizing employment and stabilizing inflation [4] Group 4: Economic Performance and Risks - Despite Yellen's warnings, the current U.S. economic fundamentals appear strong, with robust consumer spending and a recovering economy, as evidenced by a nearly 15% increase in the S&P 500 index this year [5] - Yellen cautions that the current AI investment boom may obscure underlying risks, particularly the negative impact of repressive policies on the academic environment and the loss of scientific talent [5] - She warns that the core drivers of U.S. economic growth, such as technological leadership and entrepreneurial vitality, may face long-term threats due to these trends [5]