Broadcom Rises 106% in a Year: Buy, Sell or Hold the AVGO Stock?

Core Insights - Broadcom (AVGO) shares have increased by 106.3% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry's return of 71.4% and the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 30.7% [1][2] - The company is experiencing strong demand for XPUs, which are essential for training Generative AI models, leading to a substantial increase in AI revenues [1][6] Company Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, Broadcom's AI revenues rose by 63% year over year to $5.2 billion, with XPUs contributing 65% of total AI revenues [6][10] - The consolidated backlog reached $110 billion, and the company secured over $10 billion in orders for AI racks driven by XPU demand [6][10] - Broadcom anticipates Q4 semiconductor sales to increase by 30% year over year, with software revenues expected to rise by 15% [7][10] Product Development - Broadcom launched the first Wi-Fi 8 silicon solutions for the broadband wireless edge ecosystem and began shipping the Tomahawk 6 - Davisson Ethernet switch, designed for AI networking demands [7][9] - The Jericho 4 Ethernet fabric router can interconnect over one million XPUs across multiple data centers, and the Thor Ultra is the first 800G AI Ethernet Network Interface Card [9][10] Market Position - Broadcom's partner base includes major companies like OpenAI, Walmart, and Meta Platforms, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] - The company is outperforming competitors such as NVIDIA, Marvell Technology, and AMD in terms of stock performance [2][10] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings is $6.72 per share, indicating a 38% growth from fiscal 2024, with revenues projected at $63.36 billion, suggesting a 22.9% increase [13] - However, a higher mix of lower-margin XPUs is expected to pressure gross margins, with a forecasted decline of 70 basis points sequentially [11][12] Valuation Concerns - Broadcom's stock is considered overvalued, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 18.72X, significantly higher than the sector average of 6.85X and competitors like NVIDIA and AMD [14][17] - Despite strong growth potential, the declining gross margin and challenging macroeconomic conditions raise concerns about the premium valuation [17][18]