下半年的首个交易日，美股风格大变脸，投资者从上半年表现强劲的科技股向医疗保健等防御性板块轮换。 周二，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨400点，而纳斯达克综合指数重挫0.82%，年内涨幅领先的科技巨头跌幅领先。美国科技股七巨头指数跌1.15%，Sea Limited、Spotify、Roblox、英伟达、博通、AMD、Netflix和Meta等上半年"大赢家们"均出现显著下跌。 交易数据显示， 这是自今年1月DeepSeek冲击以来最大规模的动量股平仓，AI相关交易遭遇大幅抛售，而此前表现落后的关税受损股和房地产股则大幅上 涨。 市场正在期待美国与其贸易伙伴之间达成协议，因为特朗普对最高关税的90天暂缓期将于下周到期。特朗普周二晚些时候表示"不考虑延长7月9日后的关税暂 停期"，这一消息拖累所有主要指数走低。 在过去两个月，投资者热衷于追逐具有强劲增长动力的人工智能和科技股。Ameriprise投资首席市场策略师Anthony Saglimbene表示："我认为这个交易已经 被消耗殆尽。"科技板块ETF在第二季度飙升近23%，但第三季度首日却下跌0.9%。 值得一提的是，在科技板块整体承压的情况下，年内下跌18%的苹果 ...

高盛交易部门的Pete Callahan指出，这一轮动"主要由年初至今赢家的急剧逆转驱动"，SE、SPOT、RBLX、NVDA、AVGO、AMD、NFLX和 META等股票表现明显。他认为这些变动与季度更替有关，"我们上周在各行业看到了大量机构投资者的动向，怀疑可能存在对第二季度结束前出 售/削减一些年内表现/主题赢家的犹豫"。 下半年的首个交易日，美股风格大变脸，投资者从上半年表现强劲的科技股向医疗保健等防御性板块轮换。 周二，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨400点，而纳斯达克综合指数重挫0.82%，年内涨幅领先的科技巨头跌幅领先。美国科技股七巨头指数跌1.15%， Sea Limited、Spotify、Roblox、英伟达、博通、AMD、Netflix和Meta等上半年"大赢家们"均出现显著下跌。 市场正在期待美国与其贸易伙伴之间达成协议，因为特朗普对最高关税的90天暂缓期将于下周到期。华尔街见闻此前提及，特朗普周二晚些时候 表示"不考虑延长7月9日后的关税暂停期"，这一消息拖累所有主要指数走低。 此外据高盛交易部门的观察，市场轮动主要受第三季度开始后资金重新布局、鲍威尔最新讲话以及投资者在就业数据发布前获利了 ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲金融巨头法国巴黎银行(BNP PARIBAS)近日发布的一份研究报告显示，英伟达、台积电以及博通等全球芯片巨头所主导的"硅光子 技术"浪潮即将演变成一场席卷整个AI算力产业链的史无前例革命——"硅光子革命"，这也意味着CPO与光学I/O技术路线将在不久后从前沿实验室向全球应 用端加速渗透。即将爆发的"硅光子革命"，对于涵盖AI芯片、HBM以及以太网交换机等设备的全球AI算力产业链而言可谓重大的潜在利好催化剂，"长期牛 市叙事"逻辑可谓大幅强化，有望推动该产业迈向新一轮狂飙式"牛市曲线"。 为遏制AI数据中心功耗指数级跃升、降低经营成本以及大幅提升每AI机架单位的算力效率，共封装光学(CPO)作为大规模横向扩展互连方案被提出——"AI 芯片霸主"英伟达已将其纳入路线图。比如，英伟达InfiniBand Quantum-X 交换机预计2025年下半年推出，英伟达Spectrum-X以太网交换机预计2026年下半年 推出，均集成硅光子技术。 通过将光信号发射接收端集成封装至更靠近交换芯片的位置，CPO有望扭转以太网交换机等光互连设备功耗指数级上升趋势。英伟达预测数据显示，与传统 可插拔光模块 ...

Equity Research 25 June 2025 U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment Laying Out the Scale-Up Architecture Landscape Interconnect is more critical than ever for the success of XPU efforts, and this is no more prevalent than in scale-up designs where dominance is being fought today amongst three factions (UALink, Scale Up Ethernet, NVLink) with major implications for the future of AI. We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2025 Extel All-America Research Survey in the Semiconductors & Semiconduct ...

Investors seeking white-hot growth over the past decade or so could do no better than investing in the best tech stocks.Try to list some of the biggest investing mega-trends in recent memory; you'll find it difficult to think of anything that doesn't involve the information technology sector.Semiconductors. Big data. The Internet of Things. Cloud computing. Machine learning. Artificial intelligence.Subscribe to Kiplinger’s Personal FinanceBe a smarter, better informed investor.Save up to 74%Sign up for Kipl ...

Investment Focus - Amazon (AMZN US) is highlighted for its leading position in the cloud industry with a global market share of 30%, benefiting from stable margins and growth in IaaS demand [1] - Meta (META US) shows continuous user growth and improved profitability, with expectations for AI marketing to start yielding results [1] - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to improve margins due to rising IaaS cloud scale and strong self-developed capabilities in AI, although its stock price upside is limited [1] - Meituan (3690 HK) demonstrates strong cash flow and cost advantages, with a significant cash reserve of 115 billion yuan, providing a buffer against competition [1] - Broadcom (AVGO US) is expected to see significant revenue growth from ASIC chips, with projected revenue exceeding $20.5 billion by 2026 [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) benefits from improving macro conditions and stable capex expectations, with successful product launches anticipated [1] - Samsung (005930 KS) is positioned well with low valuations and upcoming product releases in the AI sector [1] - Lenovo (992 HK) is expected to achieve record revenue driven by AI server business growth [1] - TSM (2330 TT) maintains high utilization rates in advanced processes, with promising profitability outlooks [1] - MediaTek (2454 TT) is collaborating with Nvidia to enhance its product offerings, with significant revenue growth expected from AI ASICs [1] Internet Sector - Tencent (700 HK) is expected to benefit significantly from AI advancements, with revised revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 [2] - NetEase (NTES US) is seeing growth driven by its online gaming segment, with potential for profits to exceed expectations [2] - New Oriental (EDU US) has a diverse revenue stream and a strong offline presence, with a projected 20% CAGR in profits over the next three years [2] - Futu (FUTU US) anticipates a 11% CAGR in AUM from 2025 to 2027, supported by its low commission model and quality customer service [2] Pharmaceutical Sector - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is expected to see innovative drug revenue exceed 10 billion yuan by 2025, with a strong pipeline in oncology and other therapeutic areas [3] - WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) is positioned for growth driven by its dual focus on oncology and chronic disease, with strong data from its IBI363 product [3] - Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) is expanding its product portfolio with multiple approvals expected, contributing to significant revenue growth [3] - Zai Lab (9688 HK) is focusing on commercializing its innovative drugs, with a projected revenue of 6 billion yuan in 2025 [3] Consumer Sector - Master Kong (322 HK) is expected to benefit from seasonal demand in beverages, with attractive dividend yields [4] - Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) faces challenges due to management instability and low beer consumption [4] - Midea Group (000333 CH) is benefiting from domestic policy support and strong export performance, with a focus on high dividend yields [4] New Energy Vehicles - Li Auto (2015 HK) is leading in smart driving technology, with strong sales performance and new model releases expected [4] - Tesla (TSLA US) is positioned for growth with advancements in autonomous driving technology and strong demand for its vehicles [4] - Geely (175 HK) is expected to launch multiple key models in 2025, enhancing its competitive position in the market [4] Industrial and Energy Sector - GE Vernova (GEV US) is expected to benefit from infrastructure spending in the US, with strong demand for electrical and intelligent equipment [5] - Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is poised for growth as the construction cycle improves in Europe and North America [5] - Cameco (CCJ US) is seeing increased demand for uranium as global clean energy needs rise [5]

国内外算力市场的配置标的有哪些推荐？ 当前时间点，我们对国内外算力市场都非常看好。海外算力板块经历了较大涨 幅后，仍有一些值得关注的配置标的。特别是光模块需求在 2026 年预计上调 至约 4,000 万支，增速达到五六十个百分点，超出此前预期。此外，海外 AI 用户数增长迅速，无论是 C 端还是 B 端渗透速度均超过预期，这也推动了相关 企业持续高强度投入。美股 AI 公司纷纷创下新高，为国内相关标的提供了良好 的风险偏好。 推荐的海外算力标的主要包括光模块和铜连接领域，其中首选旭 创、新易盛等光模块公司，以及鼎通科技、沃尔核材、博创科技、兆龙互联等 铜连接公司。 国内算力方面，经过前段时间的大幅下跌，目前处于冰点状态。 然而全球 AI 叙事共享逻辑表明，对国内 AI 不应悲观。英伟达特供芯片 B30 系 列预计今年（2025 年）会有 100 万支以上订单，一旦稳定量产，将获得大量 订单，是一个重要催化因素。此外，DeepSignal Two 可能在三季度发布，也 海外 AI 用户增长超预期，推动相关企业高强度投入，美股 AI 公司创新 高，为国内标的提供良好风险偏好。光模块和铜连接领域是海外算力首 选， ...

华泰证券｜AIDC 产业更新 20260629 摘要 海外算力基建恢复正轨，英伟达和 Corewave 业绩向好，分别侧重训练 和推理需求，博通和 Marvell 的 ASIC 收入预期乐观，甲骨文 OCI 业务 显示推理需求增长，预示全球 AI 进入闭环。 国内 AIDC 产业链受芯片制约、模型突破和应用落地等多重因素影响， H20 禁令影响有限，头部数据中心上架率稳定，液冷、光模块、交换机 等配套环节业绩爆发，光迅、华工、锐捷网络、星网锐捷等企业受益。 国内互联网大厂如阿里、字节跳动已宣布大规模投资 AI，尽管短期受贸 易战影响，但长期来看，国内 AI 问题有望通过芯片突破（寒武纪、华为 Cloud Matrix 384）、模型提升和应用市场优势解决。 建议关注具有核心龙头客户订单且上架率稳步提升的国内 AIDC 龙头标 的，如润泽科技、奥飞数据港、世纪互联和万国数据，这些公司估值较 低，未来有望显著改善。 英伟达 GPU 主要面向训练需求，Marvell 的 ASIC 收入预期增长，甲骨 文 OCI 业务不依赖少数大客户，收入来自各行业推理和应用需求，反映 海外产业链对未来发展的信心。 Q&A 海外和国 ...

从本轮海外算力主升浪看国产算力行情， Tokens 消耗量是核心观察点-算力周报 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 算力景气强劲，上周博通、英伟达股价双双创新高 受益英伟达股东大会乐观表述、首届中国 AI 算力大会等事件影响， 上周算力产业链相关公司股价表现依旧强劲。数通 PCB/CCL 板块中， 景旺电子+22.63%，胜宏科技+16.6%，南亚新材+15.19%，方正科技 +13.33%，深南电路+8.79%；铜缆板块中，兆龙互连+13.15%，华丰科技 +10.28%，沃尔核材+4.49%；光芯片板块中，长光华芯+8.81%，源杰科 技+6.95%。服务器代工板块中，华勤技术+10.27%，工业富联+3.69%。 近期英伟达股价的回升也反映了市场对于 AI 需求持续增长的认可，黄 仁勋在股东大会上表示，仅微软在近一个季度处理 AI 模型的请求量就 比去年同期增加了五倍以上。与此同时，英伟达关键存储供应商美光科 技周三公布的 FY25Q3 季度收入达到创纪录的 93 亿美元，超出华尔街 预期的 89 亿美元，并对 AI 需求增长给出积极预测，进一步佐证了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of TSMC's CoWoS and WMCM technologies, focusing on customer demand, capacity forecasts, and investment outlooks, particularly in the semiconductor industry [1]. Customer Demand Analysis - For NVIDIA, JP Morgan forecasts a 25% increase in CoWoS demand by 2026, reaching 58% market share, driven by the migration to the Rubin platform, which will increase package size by 50% [2]. - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to be weak in 2025 and 2026 due to restrictions on the MI300 series in the Chinese market, but there is optimism for the MI400 series in late 2026 and 2027 [3]. - Broadcom is projected to see stable growth in ASIC demand, particularly from Google TPU, with Meta expected to start mass production of its CoWoS-based AI accelerator in 2025 [4][5]. Capacity and Technology Analysis - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to stabilize by 2027, with a slight slowdown in expansion plans due to reduced GPU demand in China [10]. - By 2026, CoWoS-L is anticipated to account for 64% of TSMC's total CoWoS output, driven by more customers migrating to this technology [13]. - WMCM technology is simpler than CoWoS and is expected to significantly expand, with production capacity projected to reach 27,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and 40,000 by the end of 2027 [15]. Overall Consumption Forecast - Total CoWoS consumption is projected to grow from 134,000 wafers in 2023 to 1,132,000 wafers by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32% [11]. - NVIDIA's CoWoS consumption is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 705,000 wafers by 2027, while AMD's consumption will remain modest [11]. - The overall market for CoWoS is expected to see a shift towards CoWoS-L, with a majority of customers adopting this technology by 2025 [11][12].