Core Insights - AI spending is rapidly increasing, particularly in the computing sector, with companies investing heavily to expand their computing capabilities [1] - Companies selling computing equipment are expected to thrive, presenting strong investment opportunities in the AI sector [2] Company Summaries Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is the world's largest chip foundry, crucial for AI computing, producing logic chips for nearly all AI devices [3][4] - The company plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion to increase production capacities, anticipating a nearly 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in AI chip revenue from 2024 to 2029 [6][7] - Current market cap is $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [6] Nvidia - Nvidia is a leading name in AI, known for its GPUs that dominate AI data centers, with a market cap of $4.6 trillion and a gross margin of 70.05% [8][10] - Analysts project a 52% revenue growth for Nvidia in FY 2027, with global data center capital expenditures expected to rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030 [10] Broadcom - Broadcom is focusing on designing application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for AI workloads, which can provide better performance at lower costs compared to general-purpose GPUs [11][13] - The company expects revenue from AI semiconductors to double in Q1, indicating strong momentum in the AI sector [13]

Market Performance - The broad U.S. market started the year positively, with the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (SPY) posting a gain despite some elevated volatility in the final week of January [1]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 29 January 2026 Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment / IT Hardware Harlan Sur AC (1-415) 315-6700 harlan.sur@jpmorgan.com Peter K Peng (1-415) 315-8327 peter.k.peng@jpmchase.com Mayur Ramdhani (1-212) 622-1664 mayur.ramdhani@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC See page 2 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aw ...

Accessible version Global Memory Tech Weekly theme: memory industry model update, softening DRAM spot, LGE upside Price Objective Change Global DRAM/NAND sales forecasts raised by 25% We updated our global memory+HBM industry model following Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's 4Q25 earnings results. Key changes to our 2026 estimates vs earlier include: 1) 20%+ higher ASPs (for both DRAM and NAND); 2) slightly higher bit growth; 3) capex increase, largely driven by HBM and infrastructure investments (shell f ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly optimistic about Broadcom as a key player in the AI infrastructure revolution, particularly as cloud hyperscalers boost their capital expenditure budgets [1]. Group 1: Broadcom's Role in AI Data Centers - Broadcom serves as the "nervous system" for AI data centers, focusing on high-performance networking gear as AI applications become more complex [3]. - The flow of data between GPUs, servers, and storage systems is critical, with Broadcom's Ethernet and switching equipment facilitating the movement of large data sets with low latency [4]. - As AI workloads grow, Broadcom is well-positioned to enhance existing GPU clusters within data center architectures, earning royalties as AI infrastructure expands [5]. Group 2: Custom Silicon and Market Position - Cloud providers like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud are seeking ways to reduce compute costs and gain control over their AI stacks, leading to a trend of developing custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) [6]. - Broadcom collaborates with major companies such as Meta Platforms, Apple, ByteDance, and Alphabet to provide custom silicon solutions, allowing it to capture market share from general-purpose GPU suppliers [7]. - The shift towards integrating custom silicon with existing GPU clusters is a long-term strategy, with Broadcom becoming more embedded in multiyear hyperscale infrastructure plans [9].

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's recent stock price dip presents a significant investment opportunity, especially given its strong position in the AI infrastructure market [1] Group 1: Market Potential - AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase from approximately $500 billion to $1.4 trillion by 2030, with networking components expected to grow faster than compute spending [2] - Broadcom is positioned as a leader in both networking components and ASIC technology, which could drive substantial growth if these predictions materialize [3] Group 2: Product Portfolio - Broadcom's networking portfolio includes essential components like Ethernet switches, optical receivers, DSPs, and NICs, which are crucial for managing data flow and distributing AI workloads [4] - The company is also at the forefront of developing custom AI ASIC accelerators, providing the necessary building blocks and intellectual property for clients [5][6] Group 3: Client Engagement and Revenue Growth - Broadcom has collaborated with Alphabet on tensor processing units (TPUs), which are rapidly being adopted for cloud computing needs, including a significant $21 billion order from Anthropic [7] - Analysts project that Broadcom's AI revenue could increase fivefold from $20 billion to $100 billion over the next two years, indicating explosive revenue growth potential [8]

Core Insights - Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is recognized as one of the 12 most profitable NASDAQ stocks to buy currently, with a Buy rating reiterated by Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya [1] - Wall Street analysts project a 38% upside for Broadcom, with a price target increase from $460 to $500 due to strong AI growth prospects [2] - RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with a Sector Perform rating and a price target of $370, highlighting strong momentum for TPUs but uncertainty regarding opportunities from OpenAI and Anthropic [3] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - The average price target from 30 analysts for Broadcom is $457.75, indicating a potential 38% upside as of January 30 [3] - The stock is currently trading at a 25% premium to Nvidia, which influenced the Sector Perform rating by RBC Capital Markets [3] Company Overview - Broadcom Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer, and supplier of semiconductor and infrastructure software products [4]

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced significant changes in demand due to the rise of AI, particularly with the launch of ChatGPT, leading to a shift in its customer base from PC gamers to data centers that require high computing power [2][4] - The pricing of Nvidia's chips has surged, with the latest GB200 Blackwell Superchip priced at up to $70,000, resulting in operating margins increasing to 62% from pre-ChatGPT levels [3][5] - Analysts project Nvidia's profits could triple by 2028, potentially increasing its justified share value to around $250 [5] Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's stock has risen dramatically, but it is considered expensive with only a 32% upside to fair value from current levels [5] - The company has a history of volatility, having fallen at least 50% in 13 of the 26 years since going public [2] Competitors and Alternatives - Broadcom is recognized as a leader in custom AI accelerator chips, but its stock has also risen significantly, limiting future gains [7][8] - Marvell Technology is highlighted as a competitor with substantial upside potential, trading at a lower price-to-sales ratio compared to Broadcom, with projections of a 76% upside [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, producing advanced chips for major companies like Nvidia and Apple [14] - TSMC has a monopoly on 4-nanometer chip production, achieving high yields compared to competitors like Samsung [16][17] - TSMC's revenue is expected to grow in the mid-20% range annually, with AI revenues projected to increase by 50% annually [18] Government Investment and Future Trends - The U.S. government is heavily investing in semiconductor technology, with TSMC receiving significant grants and loans for domestic chip manufacturing [21] - There is a focus on six core sectors for future government funding, including semiconductors, as part of a broader strategy to maintain technological leadership [22][24]

文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom is set to maintain its dividend policy with a quarterly payment of $0.65 per share, reflecting stability in shareholder returns and a strong track record of 16 consecutive years of dividend increases [1][5]. Dividend Data - The next dividend payment is scheduled for March 27, 2026, with an estimated income of $65 for an investor holding 100 shares, resulting in a yield of approximately 0.78% based on a share price of $331.30 [2][5]. - Broadcom's forward payout ratio is about 18.2%, indicating that the dividend is conservatively funded by earnings and free cash flow [2][5]. - The average post-dividend price recovery time for Broadcom is just under nine days [5]. Stock Performance - Compared to the broader technology sector's average yield of around 1.37%, Broadcom's yield is lower, positioning it as a growth-focused stock rather than a high-income investment [6]. - Broadcom shares have experienced volatility in line with the wider semiconductor market [6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Demand for custom AI chips is accelerating, with shipments of AI server compute ASICs expected to triple between 2024 and 2027, driven by major players like Google, AWS, and Meta Platforms [7]. - Broadcom is positioned to benefit from a more diversified AI compute ecosystem by 2027, as the market shifts away from dominance by Google and AWS [8]. - Wall Street sentiment is increasingly supportive, with JPMorgan naming Broadcom a top tech pick due to its broad exposure across various technology sectors [8]. Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo upgraded Broadcom to 'Overweight' following a $4.5 billion senior note issuance, while Goldman Sachs reiterated its preference for the company alongside Nvidia, citing its strong leverage to AI infrastructure spending [9].