Citi(US:C) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-14 15:25Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy is expected to achieve a 5% growth target for 2025, with a similar target of around 5% for 2026, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on technological self-reliance and supply-demand rebalancing [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces and significantly improving the level of technological self-reliance, which aligns with market expectations and is seen as a key driver for future economic growth [1] - The plan also aims for a pragmatic approach to economic rebalancing, with a focus on building a national market and opposing excessive competition, while increasing household consumption rates and optimizing social security for sustainability [1] Group 2 - Preliminary estimates suggest that the pork and food cycles are likely to stabilize next year, with a recovery in service sector demand expected to lead to a rise in CPI [2] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain dominant and somewhat expansionary, with a projected general public budget deficit of 4% of GDP, and an increased focus on livelihood spending [2] - Structural measures are expected to be prioritized over cyclical policies to boost consumption, with a potential subsidy scale of 300 billion yuan for trade-in programs, aimed at expanding the range of applicable products and covering more rural areas [2] Group 3 - The external environment is expected to improve next year, with Chinese exports projected to maintain low single-digit positive growth despite a high base, making net exports a key driver of growth [2] - Currency fluctuations are anticipated, with a trend towards appreciation of the RMB, supported by factors such as purchasing power parity, rising trade surpluses, narrowing Sino-US interest rate differentials, and net inflows of cross-border capital [2]