中国猛囤全球石油，却对俄油订单减半，中俄之间究竟发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly increased its oil reserves, with nearly 90% of the global new oil inventory being stored domestically, while reducing imports from Russia by nearly half, raising speculations about the state of Sino-Russian relations and potential U.S. pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Storage and Strategic Considerations - China imported an average of over 11 million barrels of crude oil daily in the first nine months of 2025, with 1 to 1.2 million barrels going directly into reserves instead of refineries, indicating a strategic long-term approach to oil storage [3][5]. - The implementation of the new Energy Law in 2025 mandates strategic oil reserves, prompting significant investments in storage capacity, with current storage capabilities nearing 2 billion barrels and actual reserves estimated at 1.3 billion barrels, sufficient for 106 days of consumption [3][5]. Group 2: Financial and Security Perspectives - The volatility of the U.S. dollar and rising credit risks associated with U.S. debt have led to a decrease in the dollar's share in China's foreign reserves from 72% in 2015 to 59%, alongside a continuous increase in gold holdings [5]. - China's reliance on foreign oil exceeds 70%, necessitating a buffer against supply disruptions, especially amid global geopolitical instability, which has led to strategic oil purchases to ensure energy security [5][9]. Group 3: Changes in Russian Oil Imports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's imports from Russia decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with a notable 14.7% drop in the first quarter, equating to a reduction of approximately 400,000 barrels per day [7][9]. - Despite the reduction, Russia remains China's largest oil supplier, accounting for 17.5% of imports, indicating that while there are fluctuations, the foundational relationship remains intact [7][9]. Group 4: Structural Adjustments and Diversification - The decrease in Russian oil imports is attributed to structural adjustments, including U.S. sanctions affecting Russian oil companies and a shift in refinery preferences towards heavier, high-sulfur crude oils, which are more compatible with imports from Malaysia, Canada, and Ecuador [9][11]. - China's strategy emphasizes diversifying oil import sources to mitigate risks, with ongoing discussions about alternative routes for Russian oil through Central Asia, ensuring that the relationship with Russia remains stable despite changes in import volumes [13][19]. Group 5: Evolving Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation - The nature of Sino-Russian energy cooperation is evolving from simple oil and gas exchanges to more integrated partnerships, including joint projects like the Arctic LNG2 project and new transportation routes [15][17]. - The proportion of oil imports from Russia settled in RMB has approached 70%, allowing China to bypass dollar-related risks and enhance transaction transparency [17][19]. Group 6: China's Role in the Global Oil Market - China's proactive oil purchasing strategy has positioned it as a key player in the global oil market, with its buying decisions significantly influencing oil prices, exemplified by the stabilization of prices around $65 per barrel following Chinese purchases [21][22]. - The current approach balances short-term economic interests with long-term energy security, as China seeks to build reserves while diversifying supply sources to reduce potential risks from geopolitical tensions [24][26].