BCA：AI正重蹈历史泡沫的覆辙

Core Insights - BCA Research warns that the current AI boom is mirroring historical investment frenzies that ultimately ended in collapse, predicting that the AI prosperity will conclude within the next 6 to 12 months [1] Group 1: Historical Patterns Indicating AI Peak - Pattern 1: Misjudgment of Technology Adoption Pace - Investors often overlook the S-curve of technology adoption, expecting unrealistic linear or exponential growth, while the actual process tends to show initial slowness, mid-term acceleration, and later deceleration [2] - Pattern 2: Overestimation of Profit Prospects - Revenue forecasts generally exhibit optimistic bias, severely underestimating the intensity of price competition during the commercialization of technology, which historically leads to rapid erosion of profit margins [3] - Pattern 3: Accumulation of Debt Financing Risks - As the hype progresses, the proportion of debt financing increases, and cheap capital can amplify financial risks during growth slowdowns, exacerbating market adjustments [4] - Pattern 4: Asset Prices Peaking Ahead of Investment Activity - Asset prices typically reach their peak before a decline in investment activity, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and fundamentals, often signaling larger price corrections ahead [5] - Pattern 5: Formation of Downward Spiral - A sharp decline in capital expenditure can drag down the overall economy, creating negative feedback on asset prices and forming a self-reinforcing downward cycle [6] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - BCA Research suggests that based on these historical similarities, the current AI boom may end within the next 6 to 12 months, advising investors to shift towards defensive strategies to prepare for potential market adjustments [6]