特朗普心急如焚，不仅对华“贸易战”要打输，还可能倒赔2万亿美元？白宫知道急也晚了

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, raising concerns about the potential financial implications for the government and the future of U.S.-China trade relations [1][6]. Group 1: Legal and Political Implications - The Supreme Court's questioning indicates skepticism about the administration's authority to impose tariffs, emphasizing that such powers belong to Congress as per the U.S. Constitution [3][6]. - Chief Justice Roberts highlighted that tariffs are essentially taxes on Americans, which should be legislated by Congress, not unilaterally imposed by the executive branch [3][6]. - The legal challenge reflects a broader issue of executive overreach and the balance of power within the U.S. political system, with previous lower court rulings deeming the tariff policy illegal [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - Trump's claim that the government may owe over $20 trillion in refunds if tariffs are deemed illegal is exaggerated; actual potential refunds range from $50 billion to $200 billion, with collected tariffs amounting to only $174 billion as of September [4][6]. - The administration's reliance on tariffs to secure foreign investment agreements, totaling over $1.7 trillion, may collapse if the tariffs are ruled illegal, posing a significant risk to these economic commitments [4][6]. - The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has criticized the administration's claims about tariff revenues, suggesting that the actual income is likely only half or a third of what is being promoted [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In contrast to the U.S. political turmoil, China has demonstrated strategic stability by signaling a willingness to ease tensions through dialogue and mutual concessions on tariffs [6][8]. - The ongoing legal battle over tariffs underscores the lack of domestic consensus on Trump's trade policies, with significant pushback from businesses and public dissatisfaction with economic conditions [6][8]. - The potential invalidation of the tariff policy could dismantle the narrative that tariffs are beneficial for the economy, leading to broader implications for the U.S. fiscal situation and capital markets [6][8].