Warehouse demand at coastal gateways to return in 2026

Core Insights - Demand for logistics space in key U.S. gateways is expected to rebound and reach a three-year high by 2026, driven by e-commerce companies increasing their share of leasing activity [1][5] Group 1: Market Recovery - Coastal markets such as the Inland Empire and New Jersey are projected to recover, with improved space availability and reset warehouse rents from peak levels [2] - Conditions in these markets will facilitate increased demand as customers move inventory closer to consumption to lower transportation costs and enhance service levels [2] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - Heightened regulation in the trucking industry is reducing capacity and increasing rates, prompting tenants to position inventory closer to end users to minimize delivery distances and transport costs [3] - The report indicates that shrinking trucking capacity will lead to double-digit freight increases in 2026, making transportation a larger portion of total supply chain expenses and enhancing the value of well-located logistics real estate [3] Group 3: Warehouse Utilization - Warehouse utilization in the U.S. is anticipated to reach 85.5% next year, with growth driven by nondiscretionary goods, e-commerce, and manufacturing sectors [4] - Many companies are nearing maximum capacity in their existing spaces, necessitating a new wave of leasing activity to support growth plans [4] Group 4: E-commerce Trends - E-commerce companies are expected to represent nearly 25% of new leasing in 2026, as global e-commerce penetration is projected to approach 20% of total sales by year-end [5] - Domestic e-commerce firms are likely to focus on improving onshore inventory positioning and regional fulfillment capabilities due to the end of duty-free status on de minimis shipments entering the U.S. [6] Group 5: International Expansion - Asian e-commerce firms are shifting their expansion efforts towards European and Latin American markets, as the European Union is also moving to end de minimis import exemptions [7] Group 6: Power Availability - The availability of robust power sources for advanced automation and manufacturing processes is becoming a critical factor for companies when selecting facility locations [8] - Fully automated warehouses are projected to consume three to five times more power than previous models, with power availability already posing constraints in certain areas [8]