贝壳-W(2423.HK)：降本增效成果显现 “两翼”业务实现盈利

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability despite stable transaction volumes and efforts in cost control [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8% [1] - Total transaction volume for the period was 736.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - Net revenue reached 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Overall gross margin was 21.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year due to a decrease in the contribution from high-margin existing and new housing business [1] Business Segments - The existing housing transaction volume was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, with net revenue of 6 billion yuan, down 3.6% [2] - The contribution margin for existing housing was 39.0%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by reduced revenue and increased fixed labor costs [2] - New housing transaction volume was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7%, with net revenue of 6.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.1% [2] - Non-property transaction service revenue increased to 45% of total revenue, with a contribution margin of 39.7% [2] Cost Control and Efficiency - Operating expenses for the period were 4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.5% [1] - Fixed labor costs decreased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Future Outlook - The company has increased its stock buyback efforts, spending approximately 280 million USD in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [3] - The company maintains a strong cash reserve of approximately 70 billion yuan, supporting its operational stability [3] - Future adjusted net profits are projected to be 5.76 billion, 7.68 billion, and 9.67 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - A target price of 60.0 HKD / 22.8 USD has been set, maintaining a buy rating based on expected growth and efficiency improvements [3]