“人房地钱”联动，关键是实现住房精准投放

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with a significant shift in demand primarily driven by young people and new urban residents, leading to an increase in second-hand housing transactions [2][3] - The total transaction area for both new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters from January to October 2024, indicating a stabilization in the market [3] - The central government's policy emphasizes controlling new housing supply while optimizing existing stock to balance supply and demand, reflecting a strategic shift in urban development [4][5] Market Trends - From January to October 2023, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8%, a reduction compared to the previous year's 12.9% decline, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [2][4] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing in 30 key cities is projected to grow by 33% in 2023, followed by 6% and 9% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, highlighting a shift towards second-hand housing as the primary market [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports that 15 provinces have seen second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing, further emphasizing the changing dynamics in housing demand [2] Policy Implications - The central government's directive to control new housing supply aims to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize housing prices, with a focus on understanding diverse housing needs across different demographics [4][5] - The strategy includes a detailed analysis of housing demand changes, considering various factors such as product types, location preferences, and price sensitivity to ensure a balanced supply [4][5] - The emphasis on high-quality housing supply aims to stimulate demand and create a virtuous cycle between new and existing housing markets, promoting a more sustainable real estate environment [5]